State of 2007:The Political First Look

I believe that if Democrats are careful and make the right decisions their momentum from 2006 could push them over the top and that in itself could give them a very strong momentum in fundraising and fervor heading into the crucial 2008 election season. There are three distinct states of massive importance, and there could be a fourth, depending on how the courts fall on FL-13.

I believe that if Democrats are careful and make the right decisions their momentum from 2006 could push them over the top and that in itself could give them a very strong momentum in fundraising and fervor heading into the crucial 2008 election season. There are three distinct states of massive importance, and there could be a fourth, depending on how the courts fall on FL-13.

To start of, I’d like to go with my current state of residence, Louisiana. I’ll divide it into two sections; Governorship and legislature.

The Gubernatorialship

I’m utterly through with Kathleen Blanco, and I’ve been one of her most vocal opponents all along. Yes Mississippi did get far more money when it had 60% less damages than Louisiana, but that’s because they had a far, far more complex and comprehensive strategy to get residence back in real homes and rebuild Gulfport and the damaged areas of Biloxi. Looking at our statewide policy, the road home program has been a complete failure at getting either low income, or upper income families to move back. It’s poorly planned, and we’re still paying a private company millions of dollars a year to run the program.

Even bigger than that, I believe, if Blanco’s failure to push insurance companies much harder on reimbursing Louisiana residents. But, Blanco has yet to get a calculated assessment of all infrastructure damages the public needs to deal with, and then have Melancon or Landrieu submit a bill giving the state every penny that it needs.

Mississippi has used the money it’s gotten efficiently. Louisiana has squandered millions by overpaying contractors, and the state’s even diverted millions more back into the general treasury, something the next batch of federal money should have a safeguard against.

But, regardless of anything else, the varied and sketchy reports of a new, 10 billion dollar oil refinery being in the bag, while other economic observers saying it’s more likely to be built in Texas because of better infrastructure and a better business climate disappoints. Toyota appears to have dropped consideration of the Richland Parish Megasite, likely because the infrastructure of Ouachita Parish just isn’t massive enough for a plant employing five thousand people, though the economy here could really use a blast of nitroglycerin to get it started back up again. The Monroe area has lost State Farm and Guide for a total of 1,200 employees laid off, and that’s just in the last year and half. It may be a trading hub, but apparently it was too far out of the way, or connected well enough to the rest of the state to be a viable option.

These were her two big economic growth plans that she wanted to campaign and I was really disappointed to see them lose a great deal of steam. She did get the one billion dollar synthetic fuel plant built in Ascension Parish, (I could be wrong on what Parish it’s in), that will transform lignite deposits in Northwest Louisiana into a useable fuel. But that’s about it.

That’s one reason why I’ve dropped my support of her.
The other is that we have such a fantastic alternate at the moment. Foster Campbell of Bossier City. He’s known for giving the corrupt Democrats, (and the few corrupt Republicans), that control the state hell while he was in the State Senate. He’s been on the Public Services Commission for one term now. But, it is an obscure position, and his district only covers Northwest Louisiana, 1/8th of the state’s population.

But, not only is he a clean, non-establishment candidate, he’s also a fiery populist. I love populists, and I think that Louisiana’s been missing a major one for decades now. Campbell’s the kind of guy I think would stand up for the little guy, to push for economic growth, but also go after insurance companies and fight for small businesses. He’d try to get new corporations to come to Louisiana, while not being subservient to them.

At the moment, I still predict that Blanco will win the primary, (which in Louisiana is one ballot for all parties that goes into a runoff if no one gets 50%. But, Campbell, whom I strongly support, keeps raising money an even stronger rate than his current pace, and runs one hell of a campaign; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him upset Blanco on election night. However, he needs to maintain his status as the only valid anti-Blanco vote for independents and Democrats. He even needs to work to get a good 10-11 percent of the North Louisiana Republican vote to get in.
There won’t a runoff though, if another serious Republican candidate doesn’t jump in to take up 10-12 percent of Jindall’s vote share and hold him down to about 45%. I’m certain that the Republican Party, as centrally and well organized as it is statewide cannot keep at least one Republican from challenging Jindall. There will be at least one Police Juror, (in Louisiana each county is governed by a board called the Police Jury which serves the purpose of a County Executive, County Judge, County Commissioner, etc), but I’m not sure that would be enough to stop Jindall from getting 50% percent in the first election. The good news is that there are several term limited Republican State Senators mulling runs, and another few term limited State Representatives considering as well. The best case scenario is that two Republican state Senators, one State Rep, and three Police Jurors run against Jindall, and he’s held to a flat 40% vote total, and precious Republican resources go to the other Republican candidates.

If it were to go into a runoff between Blanco and Jindall, she will get her ass kicked, she will get a thumpin’, she will lose by twenty points and the Louisiana Democratic party will be shattered and left reeling. The Party will lose half a dozen State House seats in the runoff because of her horrible performance. It would probably lose a Senate seat on top of that.

Foster Campbell, I feel, could win with help from the national party. He’s a new face, and he’s not part of the establishment which Louisiana voters are so sick of. He’s got a populist demeanor, but it’s unlikely that he will outright scare small business away because he was a small business owner for decades. He’s a good campaigner, and he’s a good fundraiser. But, most of all, he exploits Jindall’s Achilles’ heel; North Louisiana.

In recent years, North Louisiana has been very strong for Republicans. Jindall, while beating Blanco by 25 points statewide in a recent independent poll, beat her by only one in North Louisiana. This area is Foster Campbell’s base, while Blanco hails from the lower half of Acadiana, where I grew up (the Lafayette-Lake Charles area, the lower half of Chris John’s old district in the bottom southwest quadrant of the state). The fact that she performs so well there despite here unpopularity and lack of regional connections, speaks volumes, to me at least, on what kind of sweep Campbell could make.

I think, that now that Chris John has demurred, Foster Campbell is our only chance of holding the Louisiana Gubernatorialship, and salvaging the Louisiana Democratic Party.

On the Legislature, Swing State Project poster louisianagirl has far more detail than I will provide. All I will give are my predictions.

I don’t know much about the house, but many close races will go into runoffs, and if Foster Campbell is in the runoff, whether he wins narrowly, or loses narrowly, I predict we lose four seats overall in the State House.

In the State Senate, I say that my Geometry Teacher’s husband Neil Riser beats the Democrat in Noble Ellington’s extremely Rural and Republican district, resulting in a Republican gain. But, several South Louisiana Republicans, originally elected as Democrats, are term limited out, and Democrats have a solid chance of picking up Craig Romero, who challenged Charlie Melancon last year and lost by about a 16 point margin, with a second Democrat in the race too. Thibideaux’s, I believe his name is, seat is also going to be a great target for Democrats. This leaves Democrats with an overall gain of one in the already overwhelmingly Democratic State Senate, while they do lose four seats in the State House, which, considering they won three seats in 2006 special elections, is not a serious loss.

Though I have to say the recent 527 created by Louisiana Republicans under the similar name as a Tom DeLay’s Texas 527, Louisianans for a Republican Majority I believe it’s called, has worried me. There are a lot of conservative districts that are open right now, and this 527 could raise a great deal of money and tip the balance. At any rate, the State House is where all the action, and the only Republican gains are going to be this year. All other statewide officers are running for reelection and are safe bets to win.

Let’s move on to Kentucky. I know nothing about the state of its State Legislature, that’s not an area I know much about. The Bluegrass Report though will have plenty of info on that. I’ll move solely onto the Gubernatorialship.

The Gubernatorialship

Republicans had their chance to destroy the Democratic Party in Kentucky even worse than it was obliterated in Georgia after 2002. They screwed up worse than any sane political pundit could have ever predicted.

After taking over because of Patton’s sex scandal, Gov. Ernie Fletcher has become embroiled in political scandal after political scandal; that has been the mark of his entire governorship. On top of that, he has not gotten any sweeping piece of legislation passed, he’s been complacent on education, he hasn’t balanced the budget, and he has not brought the state into a new era of economic growth. Fletcher hasn’t endeared himself to the Kentucky public in the least, in fact, he’s one of the most unpopular governors in the country, and has had disapprovals in the negatives by double digits for over a year now.

After it appeared she would not run for Governor, Anne Northup threw her hat in the ring, and it seems that she has the blessing of the kingmaker, (or in her case queenmaker), of the Kentucky Republican party, Mitch McConnell. But, she’s barely beating Fletcher outside the MOE in her own internal polls. Here’s a question for you Kentucky people, I’ve been pondering this, does Kentucky have a runoff in primaries? On another note, the conservative Republican party by and large seems to find the accusations purely political and unfounded. That gives Fletcher an opening, and gives Northup an even harder primary.

Anyway, 38 year old State Treasurer Jonathan Miller is easily the frontrunner for the Democratic primary, with the best connections, and strongest statewide name rec. What I like about him is that he could run for McConnell’s seat when it’s likely to be open, in 2014, and still just 45 years old. I think he’s a real rising star in the Kentucky Democratic Party, and has real Presidential potential in the future. He still has stiff challenge from Speaker of the State House, Jody Richards, but I think in the end he’ll overcome her.

Aside from how electable and strong a candidate he is, he’s also not a very conservative Democrat, his opinions are pretty moderate, and he appears to be a pretty good Democrat.
If Northup wins the Republican primary, which I believe is very likely, (unless there is no runoff in Kentucky and Billy Harper takes enough of the anti-Fletcher vote to allow Fletcher to edge Northup out), then this race is going to be close because she’ll rack up a landslide in KY-04, Geoff Davis’ district, and definitely hold Miller to a narrow margin of victory in strongly Democratic KY-03, her old district which is dominated by the liberal city of Louisville, (in fact, KY-03 is the only district in Kentucky that is not primarily suburban/exurban and rural, it’s the only urban district, and, despite Kerry’s weak showing, is reliably and strongly Democratic in statewide and local elections). I don’t think she win her old district, but a strong showing there would definitely require Miller to have a very strong showing in Chandler’s district, Hal Rogers district, (which is really Democratic on a local level, much like it’s neighbor, West Virginia. This district became even more Democratic when it was made to cover all of Eastern Kentucky after the 1992 reapportionment), Ed Barlow’s district, which some have called the most Republican of Kentucky districts, I disagree, and ancestrally Democratic KY-02, Ron Lewis’ district, (which is extremely socially conservative). Still, even with Northup and her infamous campaign savvy, as his opponent, I’d still predict him winning 52-47. With Fletcher, I’d say 59-40.

A quick note on the other statewide offices: Rep. Mike Weaver, who ran against Ron Lewis, is running for State Treasurer, I’d call him the underdog in the Democratic primary. Other statewide offices that are currently open are: Attorney General. I’d say we’ll definitely hold the State House in this great environment, and possibly, just maybe, pick up the State Senate, at the very least we’ll make gains.

I’m going to be brief on Mississippi as well, because, as with Kentucky, my knowledge of politics there is not as extensive and far reaching as I’d like, hell, I’m pissed off because I don’t know much about Louisiana politics after living here a year because the News-Star is the stupidest, shittiest, local newspaper I’ve ever encountered. It has no meat to it, and it’s absolutely useless for reading anything about politics. I don’t think I’ll even try on anything but the Governorship.

The Gubernatorialship

Things are remarkably low key in this race so far, but state Democrats salivating over the rumors of a Mabus/Moore candidacy. Mabus, a former Governor who lost his 1991 reelection campaign to a populist oriented Republican who ended up becoming very unpopular by the end of his two terms, is from North Mississippi and carries his own strengths as a candidate, including name rec. Moore was a popular four term Attorney General who retired in 2003. He’s from Biloxi, and carries great name rec., connections, and a base shared by Barbour.

This is a dream ticket, a dream ticket I’m skeptical will happen. I feel it’s likely that Mabus will jump in the ring, considering how publicly active he’s suddenly become in recent years. But, I don’t feel Moore will jump. I think Moore was through with politics in 2003, and if he did feel like getting in, I don’t think he’d want to take the backseat, even if it would probably only be for one term because of Mabus’ age and health, which could end up being campaign issues.

That’s all there really is to say about the race. This is just a skeleton analysis, because no major Democrat has jumped in to take on Haley Barbour yet. This is skimpy analysis. I normally have a lot more info, but this is the beginning outlook, nothing has happened yet, and there haven’t been any polls. I can offer my current prediction, which is that even our dream ticket, Barbour’s carried over the finish line 52-48 by his Katrina performance, and his campaigning saviness. It is important to keep Barbour sweating and on his heels this election though, that way Republican money there doesn’t go to the state legislature, and Barbour isn’t allowed to rack up a landslide and give Republicans a big gain in both houses. At current, I think the Democrats will keep the Mississippi State Legislature no matter what, though conservative Democrats will continue to give Republicans all but operational control of it.

An interesting side note, we have a great chance of retaking the Governorship when it’s open in 2011 due to term limits. Current Attorney General Jim Hood is popular, and he built a strong coalition to in 2003 to stave off a tough Republican attempt on the open seat, and he’s likely to win reelection in a landslide.

That’s the State of 2007, at the moment. Other states of interest include Virginia and New Jersey where the entire State Legislatures are up for reelection. I think Democrats have a real chance of taking back the Virginia State Senate, and increasing their margins in New Jersey. Those’ll be the sites of heated contests. If courts rule in Jennings favor, and determine that there needs to be a new election, that election will likely be held in November if Jennings can get through the legal system that fast. That would make Florida the site of a major election as well, as a Democratic victory here would vastly increase our momentum going into 2008.

“On the last note, I’m predicting that we’ll win the special election for the State Senate seat in Brooklyn. It’s tomorrow, and I would be shocked to see us lose it. A plurality of voters, by three percentage points, 38-35 I believe, are registered Democrats, and just to help you get a feel of where that puts it Presidentially, several New York Senate districts with a five or six point Republican edge voted for Kerry. I don’t see how we can lose with the New York Times endorsement, the more conservative and widely read in this district Newsday endorsement, and the massive campaign waged for a very strong candidate, County legislature Craig Johnson. Elliot Spitzer is very popular here, and his endorsement, and cutting an ad for Johnson definitely helps. Not to mention that recent corruption investigation that includes Joe Bruno, the Majority Leader of the State Senate, further highlights Spitzer’s calls for reform, and hurts the New York Republican Party. The Democrats have the momentum, not only because of the endorsements, but because of how Democratic last year was, and the leftover momentum that gave us. I think that nation, especially New York, is still in a very Democratic mood, and the New Democratic Congress is very popular so far, only helping the overall mood. These factors align for what I predict will be a 53-47 victory.”
That was written on Monday, and posted as a comment on a Republican blogger blog. I add it to this diary just to show that my political predictions are about on base, except when I do get carried away, which happened quite often in 2006, and I was occasionally mislead by what I read on the internet, and bad polling. Of course I may have gotten plain lucky that time.

Anyway, please leave comments if you disagree. Please comment if you know more about the elections than I’ve said. If you agree, and want to write a concurrence, please do so. The following thread is an open thread on any 2007 race, including tomorrow’s crucial special election in New York, and races I left out.

P.S. Please vote in the poll. You can’t imagine how much I hate saying this and hate sounding like a broken record, but I like to know how many people read the diary, so if you read this diary, please take a second and vote in the poll.